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2007 NFL Mock Draft: First Look
By Matt Thomas of Betonline.com
 
Divining which coed upstart will be the next BMOC in the pros has never been an exact science. If the legendary Mel Kiper, Jr. (of ESPN's draft coverage fame) himself does not know with absolution who will be drafted and where, then who am I to deign my predications any more astute? In addition to that, it's barely 2007 and the draft order is far from being finalized, further clouding the picture that won't even be clear at the 11th hour leading up to the draft itself.

Still, a high failure rate has never stopped the Chris Mortensons of the world from exhorting their own best guess scenarios unto the public. I am no different in the fact that I also want to be heard and hope to be recognized as a prognosticator extraordinaire. Diehard draftniks like myself are, if nothing else, resolute in the belief that we have sort of a sixth sense for this stuff.

To that end, you can rest assured knowing that my own theories are based on at least a modicum of inside information combined with a bevy of in-depth and detailed analysis and an understanding of the essential concept of recognizing perceived needs for each NFL team. In other words, this is one of the few cases where I feel I am qualified in saying that your guess may not be as good as mine, though I'm sure several of you out there will fire back with your own points of view, each of those carrying a valuable amount of insight to us all.

The selection order is based on the NFL standings as of December 22nd, 2006 (so please don't waste your time composing a paragraph-long diatribe assuring us that the Titans are playoff-bound). As schedule and free space on this site permits, I hope to provide semi-regular updates throughout the remainder of the NFL season and into the offseason, but of course my editor has more to say about this than do I.

1. Detroit Lions: BRADY QUINN, QB (Notre Dame) — If there is a football-god looking over the sport, Matt Millen will have absolutely nothing to do with this pick. Quinn is the no-brainer selection for this quarterback-starved Motor City franchise. He'll likely serve as Jon Kitna's caddy for the entirely of the '07 season, but Brady will be the man in Detroit for years to come after that.

2. Oakland Raiders: JOE THOMAS, OT (Wisconsin) — Joe Thomas is a mountain of a man and a proven commodity as a multiple-year all-conference selection at Wisconsin.The Raiders need a show-stopping offensive left tackle so they can anchor the to-this-point disappointing Robert Gallery on his more natural right side. Thomas fits that bill perfectly. While the temptation to grab an Adrian Peterson here may be too large to overcome, Thomas makes the best sense and would make the most difference.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: *ALAN BRANCH, DT (Michigan) — If Branch does decide to give up his final season of college eligibility, he'll likely be the number one defender to come off the board. The Bucs are desperate for an anchor to their defense, and Branch could be that guy. If Gruden decides to go offense early in the '07 draft, than Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson will be his choice, but don't expect that outcome as Tampa needs to start revamping their aging defense.

4. Arizona Cardinals: GAINES ADAMS, DE (Clemson) — For my money, the 6'4", 260-pound Adams is the top player on the 2007 draft board. His size-to-speed combination is a plus, but his instincts are what set him apart from his peers. While the Cardinals would have loved for Joe Thomas to fall to them here, they will be satisfied selecting Adams and filling their second most pressing team need (behind their offensive line weakness).

5. Cleveland Browns: *ADRIAN PETERSON, RB (Oklahoma) — This is the point in the draft where things start to get interesting. Cleveland, Houston, and Minnesota would all love to snag Peterson, and Arizona (picks at No. 4) may be willing to trade out of that slot if Joe Thomas is no longer on the board, giving both Houston and Minnesota (as well as Green Bay, who picks in the No. 12 slot) a potential partner in trumping the Browns for the dynamic Sooner's services. Recent history has shown that draft-day trades in the top 10 are fewer and further between than ever before, so I would bet on Adrian Peterson still being available when Cleveland is on the clock.

6. Houston Texans: *BRIAN BROHM, QB (Louisville) — David Carr's days in Texas are numbered (as of writing of this article, that number would be two) and Sage Rosenfels is little more than an adequate fill-in, so Houston will be selecting a QB sometime during the draft's first day to groom as the eventual long-term solution. Brohm really does provide the most upside — he has poise, a strong-arm, effective mobility, and has proven to be an effective leader as a collegiate signal-caller. While undoubtedly the Texan brain-trust would prefer to waste this pick on a defensive liability, the public outcry for the team to at least pretend they care about the fans' opinions will push them towards the selection of a higher-profile position player. Anything could happen ... however, this is the team that passed on both Reggie Bush and Vince Young.

7. Washington Redskins: *CALVIN JOHNSON, WR (Georgia Tech) — Forgive the visual, but Coach Joe Gibbs will be wetting himself all the way to the podium if Johnson falls into his lap as this mock draft portends. Johnson is a franchise-type of wide receiver. He's built like Terrell Owens, only faster and has the hands of Jerry Rice, only bigger. If the Redskin brass could hand-pick any one player who would fit their system perfectly, it would be this oversized Yellow Jacket receiver.

8. St. Louis Rams: TONY UGOH, OT (Arkansas) — With Orlando Pace beginning to slip a bit, St. Louis will soon find themselves in the unenviable position of having to replace one of the game's all-time greats. While most of you likely haven't heard of Tony Ugoh, you will come March and April. Ugoh is a road-grading prospect at tackle whose stock has sky-rocketed since the college football season began. Because of his quickness and vision as a run-blocker, Ugoh may well be able to slide into a guard spot, at least part-time, until Pace hands up his cleats for good. This would be a solid pick for the Rams, who also need help at defensive back and defensive end.

9. Minnesota Vikings: *JaMARCUS RUSSELL, QB (LSU) — Of all the underclassmen on this list to this point, Russell is the one that may not opt for the pros quite yet. While he is still a bit raw in his ability to read defenses, Russell has the strongest arm in college football and delivers when it matters, two traits that can't be taught. He makes a lot of sense for the Vikings here, as he should be able to step in and start immediately since durability won't be a concern (6'6", 240 pounds) and he has been a two-year starter in a pro-style offense against top-tier competition (coincidentally, that last item is something he won't be facing in the NFC's North division).

10. San Francisco 49ers: *DWAYNE JARRETT, WR (USC) — DWAYNE JARRETT would give the 49ers the deep receiving threat they so desperately need. That he played his college ball in southern California won't hurt his case, either. Jarrett is big (6'5") and has a knack for making tough catches in traffic. When paired with WR Antonio Bryant, TE Vernon Davis, and Pro Bowl RB Frank Gore, he could give the Niners a very formidable offensive attack.

11. Carolina Panthers: LARON LANDRY, S (LSU) — Landry has been one of the more consistent producers in college football over the past three seasons. He would be a nice fit for a team that needs a sure-tackler roaming the last line of defense in the secondary.

12. Green Bay Packers: *MARSHAWN LYNCH, RB (California) — Lynch is an interesting case ... as a running back, he may be coveted by a team picking lower in the draft, which would mean some team trading up to the No. 8 or 9 spot to grab him. Additionally, a team like St. Louis or Minnesota may look at Lynch as a good complimentary guy to have, which again would limit his availability to a team like the Packers, who would absolutely love to have a shot at drafting such a player. But, to Green Bay's delight, it does appear that the draft board will play very well towards teams filling their needs in their respective draft slots, which would keep Lynch on the board through the top 10. The consistent Lynch would fit nicely into the Packers' future plans and would give the team the every-down threat they long for.

13. Miami Dolphins: PATRICK WILLIS, LB (Ole Miss) — Coach Nick Saban knows his SEC players well, and it is no secret that the best linebacker in the SEC has been Patrick Willis over the past two seasons. Willis has good enough speed to play any of the 'backer spots, he is a strong character guy with instincts that will allow him to absorb complex defensive schemes (Miami has no shortage of those, and he is a sure-tackler, which is something Saban demands of his players. Only JaMarcus Russell (a Saban recruit at LSU) could lure the 'Fins away from Willis, and he figures to be long gone by pick No. 13.

14. Atlanta Falcons: *REGGIE NELSON, S (Florida) — A natural playmaker, Nelson would give the Falcons a dynamic young secondary that includes DeAngelo Hall and Jimmy Williams, first round draft picks from the previous two seasons. Reggie made big play after big play for the second-ranked Florida Gators in '06 and his knack for the ball would make him an immediate contributor on special teams and in specialty defensive alignments.

15. Kansas City Chiefs: LEVI BROWN, OT (Penn State) — Brown makes sense here for a team with an obvious weakness at both tackle positions. While he is no Willie Roaf, Levi has the potential to develop into a solid player at either tackle position.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers: LEON HALL, CB (Michigan) — For Hall to fall out of the top 15, the board would need to develop pretty much just as I show it to here. San Francisco, Carolina, Green Bay, and Miami all would snatch him up if one of the other players they covet somehow came off the board earlier than anticipated. Hall is a good tackler and a solid man-on-man coverage guy, two abilities that Coach Bill Cowher loves in his corners.

17. New York Giants: KENNY IRONS, RB (Auburn) — The G-Men will have a glaring need for a speedier counterpart to Brandon Jacobs after Tiki Barber officially retires, and Irons is a near Barber clone. While New York could likely trade down a few spots and still get the Auburn star, KENNY IRONS is well worth this pick and certainly wouldn't hurt in filling the role that Coach Tom Coughlin will be sorely lacking in '07.

18. Buffalo Bills: BEN GRUBBS, OG (Auburn) — Grubbs is versatile, which is what will set him apart from USC's Ryan Kalil (center) as Buffalo looks to fill its gaping hole in their interior offensive line. His athleticism suits the Bills' misdirection-based running game to a tee.

19. Tennessee Titans: QUENTIN MOSES, DE (Georgia) — Moses is a bit of an enigma, which is why he falls this far, as he is a top-10 type of talent. More of a pass-rush specialist, he fits in nicely with what the Titans currently have on defense at the position and his upside is tremendous if he manages to bulk up and develop a better nose for stopping the run.

20. New England Patriots(via Seattle): LaMARR WOODLEY, DE/LB (Michigan) — A natural fit for Bill Belichick's 3-4/4-3 hybrid scheme, Woodley has the speed, power, and nastiness to make a difference from different spots on the field. Very similar to ex-Steeler great Greg Lloyd in stature and constitution, Woodley would give attitude to a defense that thrives off each other's collective energies.

21. New York Jets: DeMARCUS TYLER, DT (NC State) — "Tank," as they call him, would be an ideal choice for the Jets, as he's a playmaker in the middle of the defensive line and he would allow the team to off-load Dewayne Robertson, who has never developed into the dominating force that they had hoped for. There is a chance Louisville's Amobi Okoye slides up the draft chart, in which case the Jets would take the Cardinal tackle over Tyler, but for now, DeMarcus is the guy.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: JEFF SAMARDZIJA, WR (Notre Dame) — It remains to be seen if Samardzija chooses pro baseball over pro football or, worse, sticks to his current plans of playing both professionally, but if he shows a commitment to the NFL, the Eagles would love to make him their go-to receiver. At 6'5" and with exceptional hands and speed, the Golden Domer would make a formidable target for Donovan McNabb and a great compliment to Donte Stallworth.

23. Denver Broncos: MICHAEL BUSH, RB (Louisville) — Bush is a truck-load of football player and would give Coach Mike Shanahan an interesting option in the backfield. While it is unlike the Broncos brass to pick a running back this high in the draft, Bush is worth the investment if he proves his health in the offseason workouts.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: TROY SMITH, QB (Ohio State) — With Byron Leftwich clearly on the way out, Jacksonville will need a quarterback to develop behind David Garrard, who has shown that he may be a fine stop-gap solution, but is far from being the long-term answer at that position. Who better to fit that bill than the Heisman Trophy-winning Buckeye with a penchant for making big plays in the biggest games? While Troy Smith is undersized (I'm sure we'll hear all about that in the days and weeks leading up to the draft), he has the skills to play the position in the NFL, regardless of what the experts may say (see Drew Brees).

25. Cincinnati Bengals: AMOBI OKOYE, DT (Louisville) — Okoye would be a steal at this spot. He is a rare talent in that he plays faster than his size (6'2", 300 pounds), but also plays bigger. If Okoye outperforms DeMarcus Tyler in offseason workouts, look for the Jets to take Amobi and the Bengals will settle for Tyler, but at this point, Tyler gets the higher ranking of the two leaving Cincy with the talented Okoye.

26. Dallas Cowboys: MARCUS McCAULEY, CB (Fresno State) — McCauley will shoot up draft boards once the all-star circuits get underway and his skills are showcased against some of the nation's top receivers. That said, cornerbacks aren't a top priority for most teams around the league, as the "have nots" have many more pressing needs and the "haves" needn't waste picks for depth alone. This suits the Cowboys just fine, who would pick up an excellent compliment to play alongside Terrence Newman and replace an overpaid Anthony Henry in McCauley, should he be available.

27. New Orleans Saints: *DARRELLE REVIS, CB (Pittsburgh) — The Saints are set on offense and are comfortable with their defensive line. This leaves linebacker and secondary as their primary points of concern, and the value pick here is Revis, who was brilliant at times in Pittsburgh's secondary. Penn State linebacker Paul Posluszny is an intriguing option here, but Revis has a higher upside and should be the choice.

28. New England Patriots: DAYMEION HUGHES, CB (California) — New England would love to have Hughes, a 6'0" corner, fall to them with their second pick in the first round. He fits a need and fits the profile of a Bill Belichick kind of player in that he's big enough and quick enough to play man coverage or drop back as an extra safety in specialty defensive situations, which the Patriots employ often. Hughes would be a great pick here.

29. Baltimore Ravens: RYAN KALIL, C (USC) — Kalil has the size (6'3", 292 pounds) to slide to the guard slot, but he may well replace Mike Flynn as the team's center if he is in fact their selection. Kalil is a study in consistency and provides the intelligence, instincts, and technique to be a Pro Bowl-level player in the NFL. With the Ravens being set along the defensive line and in the defensive backfield (which is where the strength of this draft is, especially late in the first round), this pick makes sense.

30. Indianapolis Colts: QUINN PITCOCK, DT (Ohio State) — What does the team that has everything except an ability to control an opponent's running game need? The nation's premier run-stopping defensive tackle. Penn State's Posluszny may fit in here, as well, but Pitcock is a good start and they can work on their linebacking deficiencies later in the draft.

31. Chicago Bears: *ROBERT MEACHAM, WR (Tennessee) — The acrobatic Meacham is a good fit for the Bears and their here today, gone tomorrow offense and would be a nice weapon to have opposite the solid-but-unspectacular Muhsin Muhammad. With good size, decent speed, and fantastic hands, the Volunteer wideout could help stabilize a very unstable offense.

32. San Diego Chargers: DWAYNE BOWE, WR (LSU) — The Chargers need one thing and one thing only, consistency from the receiver spot. Dwayne Bowe is big and tough and would provide a very nice option to Phillip Rivers over the middle to go with TE Antonio Gates, who is more effective moving upfield anyway. An addition like Bowe would make this offense even more scary than they already are.

There you have it ... my first mock draft installment profiling the 2007 NFL draft.

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•Dog thinks 2 $900 Super Bowl tickets tasty treat

Super Bowl Weekend
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January News:
•Reggie Bush to Give Deposition
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•Reggie Bush Engaged to Kim Kardashian?

December News:
•Eagles vs. Saints Preview 12/23/07
•Bush Hoping to Play Against Eagles 12/18/07
•Cardinals 24, Saints 31
•Bush Out For the Year 12/12/07
•Falcons 14, Saints 34 12/10/07
•Falcons vs. Saints Preview 12/10/07
•Buccaneers 27, Saints 23 12/02/07
•Buccaneers vs. Saints Preview 12/02/07

November News:
•Panthers 6, Saints 31 11/25/07
•The Dissapointment of Reggie Bush 11/21/07
•Texans 23 Saints 10 11/18/07
•Jaguars Saints Preview 11/04/07

October News:
• Falcons 16 Saints 22 10/21/07
• Preview: Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
• Saints 28,Seahawks 17 10/14/07
• Preview: Saints Vs Seahawks 10/14/07

September News:
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• Duo Clash: Reggie Bush and Vince Young Meet Again
• Preview: Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints
• Bucs 31 Saints 14
• New Orleans 10, Indianapolis 41
• Preview: New Orleans at Indianapolis
• Saints have Super Bowl aspirations

August News:
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• Brees Strong as New Orleans Saints Blowout Chiefs - 08/24/07
• New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs - 08/23/07
• New Orleans Saints Ready for Cincinnati Bengals
• Saints Bid Farewell to Jackson
• Saints' Starters Set to Hit the Field Against Bengals
• New Orleans Saints - NFC South Preview
• New Orleans Saints Play Exhibition on Sunday
• 2007 New Orleans Saints Odds and Predictions
• Saints Already Eyeing Sunday Night Opener

July News:
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• These Saints May Have Answers
• New Orleans Saints Enter '07 in Strange Position — as Contenders
• Will '07 Saints be Super?
• 2007 NFL Preview: New Orleans Saints
• New Orleans Saints Predictions

June News:
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• New Orleans Saints Signs Two Local Players
• New Orleans Saints' Meachem Expected Back by Camp
• New Orleans Saints 2007 Preview

May News:
• New Orleans Saints Camp Shows Team Ready For NFL Tops

April News:
• JaMarcus Russell, Draft, New Orleans Saints
• New Orleans Saints 2007 - 2008 Schedule
• New Orleans Saints 2007 Draft Preview

Feb News:
• Saints Limp into Scouting Combine
• Saints Tag Grant as Franchise Player
• New Orleans Saints Re-Sign LB Scott Shanle
• Super Bowl XLI Champions - Indianapolis Colts
• As You Watch Super Bowl, Don't Forget New Orleans

Jan News:
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• New Orleans Saints Eager to Build on a Winning NFL Season
• Bears Win Over Saints - NFC Champions
• Saints vs. Bears - Playoffs NFC Championship
• Philadelphia 24, New Orleans 27
• Eagles at Saints - Playoffs
• Saints' 2007 Opponents Set

Dec News:
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• Saints vs. Panthers Preview
• Saints 30, Giants 7
• Saints vs. Giants Preview
• Saints Fall to Redskins, but March into Playoffs
• Redskins vs. Saints Preview
• New Orleans Saints 42, Dallas Cowboys 17
• More About New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys
• New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys Preview
• Reggie Bush’s 4 TD’s: New Orleans Saints 34, San Francisco 49ers 10

Nov News:
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• New Orleans Saints Playoff Contenders
• New Orleans Saints 31, Atlanta Falcons 13
• Saints vs. Atlanta Preview
• Cincinnati Bengals 31, New Orleans Saints 16
• Another Saints vs. Bengals Preview
• New Orleans Saints vs. Cincinnati Bengals Preview
• Pittsburgh 38, New Orleans 31
• Saints, Steelers, Headed in Opposite Directions
• New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
• New Orleans Saints at Mid Season
• New Orleans 31,Tampa Bay 14

Oct News:
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• New Orleans Saints Report Card
• Just Like the City of New Orleans, Saints Bounce Back
• New Orleans Saints Story Almost Too Good To Be True
• Philadelphia Eagles Collapse to New Orleans Saints 27-24
• Eagles Vs Saints Preview
• New Orleans Saints 24 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21
• New Orleans Saints Ready for Tampa Bay Bucs
• Saints Again Show Spunk, but Run Out of Gas